数据来源: [1]联邦基金利率、失业率、物价指数:FEDERAL RESERVE BANK of ST. LOUIS [2]股票、大宗数据叠加:Datayes通联数据 [3]国债收益率:英为财情 [4]各国汇率:barchart 参考资料: [1]Britannica,Ronald Reagan [2]中金,加息启示录:1980的沃尔克时刻 [3]CNBC,保罗·沃尔克:曾“与世界为敌”的金融巨人 [4]莫尼塔宏观研究,美联储降息50BP的历史经验与资产表现 [5]中金,美国80-90年代储贷危机的回顾和经验教训 [6]BUSINESS INSIDER,What is a recession? Definition, Causes, and Impacts [7]JPMorgan:markets pricing in higher recession odds [8]FRED,What Is the Probability of a Recession? The Message from Yield Spreads